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WHAT IS THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION?
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses, from a frequency of average occurrence, the probability that a certain number of events will happen during a certain period of time.
For example: QVIDING VS NORRBY
The match ended with the result of 1-2 for Norrby.
Once the corresponding formulas have been made (we have it automated in an Excel), the Poisson distribution will show us some results, and we highlight the following:
Victoria visitor with a 46.65% chance. In bet I was at @ 3.50
Over of 2.5 goals with a 63.90% chance. @ 1.62 in bet.
Exact results: 1-1 and 1-2 as the most likely. I imagine they would be at higher rates @ 6.
Then we have to, according to statistics, a fee that was paid to @ 3.50 (visitor victory) has been met. They have even fulfilled one of the two most probable exact results, in addition to over goals.
This is statistic, it gives you a very reliable approach to the future of the game in terms of goals, but it is not a reliable approach in all cases. When I speak of reliability I mean that it will not be equally valid in all matches. In this case it has been fulfilled, but there will be other variables in other encounters: mood of the players, motivations, casualties, injuries, coach, etc.
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