A Profitable Strategy to Beat the Under/Over Market in Soccer Games

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Description

The main purpose of this book is to define and illustrate a betting strategy for the under/over 2.5 goals in soccer matches. Differently from other Authors, who used the Poisson distribution to predict the result of a soccer/football match, the dependent variable in our model is the sum of the goals scored in a match, regardless which team actually scores. Furthermore, we referred to a Polarization factor to take into account the fact that some teams are more incline to impose their style of play, while other teams tend to adapt their style to the circumstances and the style of the opponent team. We tested the model for one entire season in ten different European leagues, obtaining straightforward results, showing a 12.5% ROI over 2,611 matches analyzed in the 2017/2018 season. Moreover, we performed some statistical analysis to assess that, basing on our sampling data, we can be 90% confident that the betting strategy is profitable. Chapter 1 includes a brief summary of the concepts required to evaluate betting odds on under/over in a soccer match, and it can be ignored by readers with a solid knowledge on betting. The theoretical bases of the Poisson Polarized Model are explained in Chapter 2, including a detailed description about how the model works. In Chapter 3, the core of the algorithm is analyzed step-by-step, so that the model can be replicated by everyone is interested on doing so. You can learn how to perform calculations by hand, or using a spreadsheet, such as Microsoft Excel ™. Finally, Chapter 4 contains the report of the performance of the model in 2017/2018 season, including a discussion about how much we can be statistically confident about these results, in the future or referring to other soccer leagues. Furthermore, a reading of Section 4.4 is needed to understand the prime importance of the betting odds in all the context, including the current strategy. Appendix A includes a quick tutorial about how to convert fractional and money line odds to decimal odds, that is the format used in this book, while Appendix B contains an academic report showing the significance test performed over the sample. All the sample data are reported in Appendix C, while Appendix D is a summary of all the formulas used in this book, so that you can quickly recall all formulas just with one click.

Additional information

Author

Curzio Macchi

Manufacturer

Independently published

Studio

Independently published

Publisher

Independently published

PublicationDate

2018-07-25

ProductTypeName

ABIS_BOOK

ProductGroup

Book

PackageDimensions
NumberOfPages

69

ListPrice
Binding

Paperback

Languages
Label

Independently published

ItemDimensions
ISBN

1717906648

IsAdultProduct

0

EANList
EAN

9781717906649

Title

A Profitable Strategy to Beat the Under/Over Market in Soccer Games